Preparing for Peak Oil

Oil is a finite resource.

And we are very close to producing the most oil we ever will.

The peak oil argument is the theory that eventually oil production will peak, and when this happens, production will begin to decrease irreversibly. This argument was first set forth by Dr. M. King Hubbert. In his theory, oil production follows the traditional bell curve; meaning that production increases until its hits a peak, and then decreases. The theory was extremely controversial when Huppert proposed it in a 1956 speech. In this speech, he also predicted that peak oil for the United States would occur in the early 1970s; he was laughed at for this prediction. However, he was dead on; US oil production peaked in the early 70s and Huppert was no longer a laughing stock. While the idea of peak oil in and of itself may be frightening enough, the implications of peak oil are even more terrifying. The global economy, let alone the United States economy, is dependent on abundant, cheap oil. It has been that way for virtually the last century; and the more humanity advances, the higher the demand for oil rises. Once peak oil is reached, the entire economic system and civilization itself will have to be rethought. There won’t be enough oil to run all the vehicles that occupy the road ways. There won’t be enough oil to generate sufficient electrical energy to power all aspects of civilization. Humanity must come up with new ways to generate energy, because at present time, no combination of known alternative energy sources will be able to meet the energy demands that exist now. And energy demand will only continue to rise. The ultimate implication of the peak oil argument is that humans are faced with the prospect that civilization, as it has come to be known, may be drastically different in the not so distant future.

Our dependence on oil has arisen in large part because of the American suburbs. The suburbs were created as a way to escape the closeness and cramped quarters of urban life. The space and expanse is the fatal flaw of the suburbs. Americans living in suburbs needed the automobile to get around the communities to stores, schools, places of employment, etc. In the suburbs nothing is particularly close together. And because many suburbs don’t have sufficient public transportation, the car was the only way to get to places efficiently. Also, the sub-standard American railway system made interstate highways and long distance trucking a necessity. These and other factors have made the American economy absolutely dependent on cheap oil, the vast majority of which must be imported from foreign countries. The current American economy will not be able to continue or function once world oil production begins declining. That's no bullshit, its just how its gonna be.

Peak oil is a very real, and probably imminent, problem. While some of the theories for the future presented by the experts seem a little far-fetched and come off as a scare tactic, the presenters achieve their purpose: communicating that peak oil is a problem that humanity must start dealing with now. We cannot wait to act until peak oil is reached or wait until some kind of social or economic disaster occurs. The entire world will have to rethink civilization. There are some things that we can begin to do now to avoid complete failure in the future. One is to construct public transportation systems across the country that do not depend on oil. Electric trains and buses are a possibility, though in the future we will need a new way to produce the electricity. Another action that can be taken is to force politicians to pass legislation that will raise fuel efficiency standards for cars and also fund extensive research on alternative fuel sources. Individual people must do there part in consuming less and taking a more centralized approach to how they live their lives. If people could either walk, bike, or take mass transit to wherever they need to go, the dependence on individual vehicles might be broken.

The peak oil argument paints a pretty grim picture for the future of the human race. But if we can begin to make small changes in the way we live our lives, and if we will be flexible and open to change in the way we view society, the future looks better. In reality though, we will probably do nothing. Peak oil will occur and we will wait until there is a disaster. We will not easily let go of the way things are now. The U.S. will do anything to hold on to its collective way of life, even pointless, unprovoked war (ex. The Iraq War). And Americans will elect politicians who promise to defend the American way of life from all threats, but in the process will do nothing to prepare for the economic and societal changes that will come in the post-oil world. (see Bush, George W.). So ultimately, the country, and really the world, is likely headed toward a rude awakening once we realize that oil production is no longer increasing. But we all should hope not, and everyone must take action to avoid the disaster scenario.